Running the numbers On Kessel

Lets crunch the numbers… A former top five pick coming back after six months off. Five million-plus for the next five years, plus two first rounders, and a second. Twenty-four shifts and twenty –three minutes and fifty seconds in his first game back with a last place team, with just one win, which hasn’t played a post-season game in five years. Nineteen attempts, producing ten shots on goal, a career high, after posting 36 goals in 70 games in 2008-09 with conference rivals, the Boston Bruins.

…First impressions? While Burke paid dearly for the former top five pick, now just 22 years old, he may prove to be a bargain at twice the price if he can prove to be the tonic for what ails this struggling original six team that prides itself on being the number one team in Canada. Maybe in TV ratings, but the numbers would show otherwise…while the Buds have shown plenty of jam, cashing in on those opportunities has been a problem.

More numbers: four straight OT losses, 105 shots in 3 games, and six of a possible twelve points since October 24th. Not brilliant, but a marked improvement since setting a new record for the absolute worst start in franchise history. Clearly, Kessel has a hell of a row to hoe as the Leafs’ number one offensive weapon. Now back to those first impressions…

When Phil Kessel leaps over the boards and takes to the ice, defenders instinctively back off for fear of being undressed by one of the craftiest, most dynamic offensive talents in the game today. He’s an incredible skater and a deadly stick handler, with an exceptional ability of making scoring chances materialize out of thin air. But, he MUST keep his head up…

Standing at just 5 feet 11 inches, he’s a stocky, sturdily built pure finisher with a good, stable low center of gravity, and enough tough in him to take a good hit and get back up. After getting tattooed at the blueline by Mathias Ohlund on Tuesday, the determined young winger came back even stronger, dispelling his new bosses’ worst fear that the shoulder might still be a little fragile. But as we all know, he’s come back from far more serious setbacks.

The leafs have thirteen contests slated for the month of November, with a chance to exploit a free-falling Carolina team on Friday, who are looking to hand the Buds sole possession of dead-last in the league. Since Tuesday’s OT loss, Kessel has been practicing with John Mitchell at center, in spite of a pretty respectable first game with Stajan manning the number one pivot position. Personally, I thought Matty showed enough to warrant a second game, but I don’t think number 14 has ever been a favourite of Wilson’s, and rumour has it that he’s often the subject of trade talks. Mitchell may have the speed as well as a little more strength up the middle, but maybe not quite the passing ability that Stajan has shown. We’ll see soon enough how he fares with a bonafide sniper on his wing, or if Doug Gilmour’s high praise of the burgeoning Leaf forward is warranted.

Dollars to donuts that number 81 shows an ability to make whoever he plays with look like first line talent. The whole Savard factor may be less significant than many would believe, but there is no comparison between any current Leaf, and Marc Savard in terms of offensive prowess. It will fall to to Kessel to create his own magic, and it would behoove Wilson to line him up with some big bodies who will crash the net and create screens, as well as providing some muscle, should the cheap shot artists come calling. Kessel doesn’t require much time or space to make use of his high end skills, featuring a lightning-quick release, with laser-guided precision and accuracy.

This is likely where you play your sides of beef like Rosehill and/or Exelby, who can punish the guilty and go sit for 5 minutes and not have it affect your roster. Carolina leads the league in PIMS as a team, as well as being right near the top in major penalties. With this in mind, expect a nasty affair with a frustrated opponent showing little in terms of self-control. Hopefully the Leafs PP remembers the game plan employed in Anaheim and cashes in once again…

Maybe I’m being a tad over-concerned. But if I’m Burke, I’m sending the message early and often that taking liberties with Kessel will cost you a pound of flesh. You target our top guy; you can bet your backside it will hurt you, both in terms of retribution, and in man advantage opportunities.

With ward struggling, look for Kessel to once again lead the charge in shots and notch a couple points, his first of many in Blue and White.

Let’s hear your thoughts on Number 81 as a Leaf, and whom you think has what it takes to share a line with the Leafs best offensive weapon to come along in years…